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World Meteorological Organization: The possibility of La Nina in the next three months is more than 50%. The latest forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization on the 11th shows that the possibility of La Nina in the next three months is more than 50%. It is expected that the intensity of La Nina will be weak and the duration will be short. According to the introduction of the World Meteorological Organization, the current El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is in a neutral state, which is neither El Niñ o nor La Nina. According to the forecast, from December 2024 to February 2025, the possibility of changing from the current neutral state to La Nina phenomenon is 55%. The forecast also shows that from February to April 2025, the possibility of returning to neutral state is 55%. (Xinhua News Agency)European Central Bank President Lagarde: Increased global trade friction may weaken economic growth. European Central Bank President Lagarde: Increased global trade friction may weaken economic growth, and the growth prospects are facing downside risks. The downside risks of inflation include low market confidence, geopolitical pressure and low investment. The intensification of trade friction will make the inflation prospect more uncertain.Jili Liaoyuan reported a suspected gas explosion in a residential area: 13 people were hospitalized, including 2 seriously injured. Liaoyuan City Emergency Management Bureau reported that at 18: 17 pm on December 12, the municipal fire rescue detachment received an alarm, and a suspected gas explosion occurred in a residential area in Liaoyuan City. At present, the open flame has been extinguished, and 13 people were hospitalized, including 2 seriously injured. The cause of the accident is under investigation.

WTI crude oil futures fell below $70/barrel, down 0.43% in the day; Brent crude oil fell 0.43% in the day to $73.05/barrel.Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.Macron said that it opposed the free trade agreement reached between the EU and MERCOSUR. On December 12th, local time, French President Macron, who was visiting Poland, said that he disagreed with the free trade agreement reached between the EU and MERCOSUR. Macron said that the impact of the agreement on the agricultural market caused widespread concern, and France would not sacrifice its agricultural sovereignty. On the same day, Macron also said that Europe must strengthen its investment in security, build a European defense base and reduce its strategic dependence on the outside world. The EU and MERCOSUR reached a trade agreement on December 6th. The Southern Common Market was established in 1991. At present, its members are Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia, of which the first four are founding members. The vast majority of goods among member countries are free to trade without tariffs, and a unified foreign tariff policy is implemented. It is understood that the trade agreement needs to be approved by at least 15 of the 27 EU member States, and it needs to be voted by the European Parliament before it can be approved. France, Poland and Italy opposed the agreement. (CCTV News)

The US Secretary of State met with Jordan's King and Deputy Prime Minister to discuss the situation in Gaza and Syria. On December 12, local time, the State Council issued a statement saying that US Secretary of State Blinken met with Jordan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Overseas Chinese Affairs Assafadi and Jordan's King Abdullah II in Aqaba that day, and discussed issues such as reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, ensuring the release of all detainees, providing humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians in all parts of Gaza and the situation in Syria. Blinken said that the United States supports the Syrian-led political transition. Blinken said that Syria must take all measures to protect civilians and promote the entry of humanitarian aid. Abdullah II reiterated that Jordan respects the choice of the Syrian people, but also stressed the importance of maintaining Syria's security and protecting its citizens. In addition, Abdullah II stressed that the first step to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire in the region is to stop Israeli attacks on Gaza. Abdullah II pointed out that achieving this goal requires immediate and serious international action. The meeting also discussed efforts to strengthen the humanitarian response to Gaza. Talking about the situation in the West Bank, Abdullah II warned the danger of Israel's unilateral actions and condemned Israel's continued attacks on Jerusalem and other places. He once again stressed that the "two-state solution" is the only way to achieve a just and comprehensive peace and the key to preventing the region from falling into more conflicts. (CCTV News)Central Economic Work Conference: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, reduce the RRR and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the growth of money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and overall price level. Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Explore and expand the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank, innovate financial instruments, and maintain the stability of the financial market.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Protectionism will lead to short-term inflation. European Central Bank President Lagarde: Protectionism will lead to short-term inflation. Higher tariffs may lead to inflation in the short term; The final impact of high tariffs on inflation is uncertain.